Reference
How every number on this site is built
Each monitor states a directional view. This page is where the working is kept — the method behind each one, the data it runs on, and what it will not tell you. Everything is grouped by market, so you can go straight to the surface you were looking at.
One thing worth saying plainly: every monitor publishes state labels and conviction dots rather than raw scores. That is deliberate. A number stripped of its context invites false precision, and the label is the honest unit of what the framework actually knows.
CB Rates
Policy rates for 20 central banks with bilateral differentials, real rates, carry screening and meeting countdowns. Where a bank has not published its next decision date, the page says so rather than showing a stale one.
Asian Stress Monitor
Three tiers read in transmission order — funding, financial centres, cyclical assets — rolled into one regime state by five pre-committed tripwires. Stress is a money problem before it is a market problem, so it is read downhill.
This monitor explains itself on the page: the tier structure, what each tripwire tests and the Calm / Elevated / Stressed thresholds are set out at the top of the Asian Stress Monitor itself, above the readings.
FX Monitor
Directional bias for the US dollar and twelve major and emerging-market pairs, read as a single transmission chain: volatility regime → US rate structure → dollar bias → per-pair bias.
Crypto Monitor
Bitcoin directional bias plus capital-rotation cohorts, driven by an Altseason Probability Score built from six factors. Recomputed weekly, after the financial conditions print it depends on.
E.A.G.L.E. Watch
A structure-based directional sensor across FX, metals and crypto, reported as a fixed ladder of states with a conviction reading for higher-timeframe agreement. It is observational — decision support only, not trading or financial advice.
The full state ladder and the conviction key are printed on the Watch page under “How to read it”, next to the readings they describe. Shared vocabulary across all surfaces lives in the Glossary.
Market Reports
Pre-market and post-market reports published each trading day, with a Week in Review each Friday. They are a written synthesis of the same framework the monitors run on — the readings gathered into prose, in the order the transmission chain runs.
The reports carry no method of their own: what they describe is derived exactly as set out in the cards above. They are observational, and are published on a fixed schedule rather than when there is something to say. Read the reports, or have them sent to you from the email page.
How calls are recorded
Every directional call is written to an append-only ledger at the moment it is published — before its outcome is known — and later graded against the market price at its own expiry by a fixed, published rule. Nothing is re-judged with hindsight, and no row is ever edited or removed.
That record is being built, not advertised. This site is here to explain how the transmission chain works and what the current readings are; it makes no claim about forecasting accuracy, and it will not make one until there are enough resolved calls for the answer to mean something. Until then, treat every reading as a description of conditions, not a prediction to act on.