The Transmission Chain · East

Asian Stress Monitor

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Regime read · Asian session

Calm · 0 fired Elevated · 1 Stressed · 2+

Three tiers in transmission order: Funding is the signal layer, Financial centers the transmission layer, Cyclicals the confirmation layer. Stress is born as a money problem before it becomes a market problem, so it flows downhill — from funding, through the intermediaries that must absorb it, into the growth-sensitive tape. Stress that starts in equities does not flow back up. Five pre-committed tripwires roll up into one state: none fired is Calm, one is Elevated, two or more is Stressed.

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Framework: funding transmission requires USDCNH rising, the 2-year falling while the dollar rises, HY spreads widening, HIBOR stress. Carry unwind requires sharp USDJPY downside. If the cyclicals bleed while funding sleeps, the move is sector- or rates-led, not systemic. Deltas: 1d / 1w / 1m; yields in bp. The dollar gauge is DTWEXBGS (Fed broad dollar index), a keyless DXY proxy; Hang Seng rides EWH (iShares MSCI Hong Kong ETF) as a correlated proxy, badged as such. Data refreshes each weekday ~08:20 UTC after Asia closes.

How this monitor works

This monitor tracks where market stress begins — in Asian-session dollar funding — and how it flows downhill through financial centers into cyclical assets. Two companion pieces explain the framework and the timing:

The Transmission Chain Goes East — the three tiers, the tripwires, and the deterministic state ladder behind the read above.
First Light: Why the Asian Session Speaks First — why the chain begins in Asia and what the session sequence tells you before Europe and New York open.
How every number on this site is built — method, data sources and limits for this monitor and every other surface.
State-label glossary — how this monitor’s labels — Calm / Watch / Alert per series, Calm / Elevated / Stressed overall — line up with the label words on the FX, Crypto, and CB Rates monitors.

Regime reads are published for education and decision support only. Not financial, investment, or trading advice. Full disclaimer.