The Transmission Chain · East

Asian Stress Monitor

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Regime read · Asian session

Calm · 0 fired Elevated · 1 Stressed · 2+

Three tiers in transmission order: Funding is the signal layer, Financial centers the transmission layer, Cyclicals the confirmation layer. Stress is born as a money problem before it becomes a market problem, so it flows downhill — from funding, through the intermediaries that must absorb it, into the growth-sensitive tape. Stress that starts in equities does not flow back up. Five pre-committed tripwires roll up into one state: none fired is Calm, one is Elevated, two or more is Stressed.

Read top to bottom · jump to the regime read →

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Framework: funding transmission requires USDCNH rising, the 2-year falling while the dollar rises, HY spreads widening, HIBOR stress. Carry unwind requires sharp USDJPY downside. If the cyclicals bleed while funding sleeps, the move is sector- or rates-led, not systemic. Deltas: 1d / 1w / 1m; yields in bp. The dollar gauge is DTWEXBGS (Fed broad dollar index), a keyless DXY proxy; Hang Seng rides EWH (iShares MSCI Hong Kong ETF) as a correlated proxy, badged as such. Data refreshes each weekday ~08:20 UTC after Asia closes.

How this monitor works

This monitor tracks where market stress begins — in Asian-session dollar funding — and how it flows downhill through financial centers into cyclical assets. Two companion pieces explain the framework and the timing:

The Transmission Chain Goes East — the three tiers, the tripwires, and the deterministic state ladder behind the read above.
First Light: Why the Asian Session Speaks First — why the chain begins in Asia and what the session sequence tells you before Europe and New York open.
State-label glossary — how Calm / Watch / Alert here lines up with the label words on the FX, Crypto, and CbRates dashboards.