Tiered monitor separating three stress regimes: global risk-off, carry-trade
unwind, and dollar-funding transmission. Tier 1 (funding) is the signal layer;
Tier 2 (financial centers) is transmission; Tier 3 (cyclicals) is confirmation.
Stress that starts in funding flows downhill. Stress that starts in equities doesn't flow up.
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Tripwires · conditions that flip the regime read
Framework: funding transmission requires USDCNH rising, 2Y falling while the dollar rises,
HY spreads widening, HIBOR stress. Carry unwind requires sharp USDJPY downside. If Tier 3
bleeds while Tier 1 sleeps, the move is sector- or rates-led, not systemic. Deltas:
1d/1w/1m; yields in bp. The dollar gauge is DTWEXBGS (Fed broad dollar index), a keyless
DXY proxy. Data refreshes each weekday ~08:20 UTC after Asia closes.