TRIGGER WATCHLIST
UPGRADE TRIGGERS
  • Macro 1/3 supportive (supportive: DTWEXBGS) — remaining non-supportive signals (DFII10, NFCI) all flipping supportive would upgrade Factor 1 from 10 to 20.
  • BTC.D currently 58.11% (8-wk MA 57.04%, +3.05% over 4 weeks) — drop below 8-wk MA OR flip to negative 4-wk change would upgrade Factor 2 from 0 to 10.
  • ETH/BTC currently 0.028450 (8-wk MA 0.030128, -9.16% over 4 weeks) — close above 8-wk MA OR flip to positive 4-wk change would upgrade Factor 3 from 0 to 7.
  • Stablecoin total $322.7B (+0.85% over 4 weeks) — spot-volume confirmation (pending data wiring) would upgrade Factor 4 from 7 to 15.
  • Funding (Bybit perps): ETH -0.0018%, SOL +0.0100%; 3/8 basket positive; alt mcap 24h rising — ETH AND SOL positive, ≥ 4/5 secondaries positive, AND alt mcap confirmation rising 24h would upgrade Factor 5 from 7 to 15.
  • Top-100 breadth: 29/95 alts (30.5%) outperformed BTC over 90d (BTC +17.70%) — share outperforming BTC crossing 50% would upgrade Factor 6 from 5 to 10.
DOWNGRADE TRIGGERS
  • Macro 1/3 supportive (supportive: DTWEXBGS) — supportive signal(s) (DTWEXBGS) flipping hostile would downgrade Factor 1 from 10 to 0.
  • BTC.D currently 58.11% (8-wk MA 57.04%, +3.05% over 4 weeks) — break above 60% with weekly close would confirm a deeper dominance regime, reinforcing Factor 2 at 0.
  • ETH/BTC currently 0.028450 (8-wk MA 0.030128, -9.16% over 4 weeks) — drop below 0.028 support would confirm deeper ETH weakness, reinforcing Factor 3 at 0.
  • Stablecoin total $322.7B (+0.85% over 4 weeks) — flip to negative 4-wk change would downgrade Factor 4 from 7 to 0.
  • Funding (Bybit perps): ETH -0.0018%, SOL +0.0100%; 3/8 basket positive; alt mcap 24h rising — ETH AND SOL both flipping negative with ≥ 2 secondaries following would downgrade Factor 5 from 7 to 0.
  • Top-100 breadth: 29/95 alts (30.5%) outperformed BTC over 90d (BTC +17.70%) — share outperforming BTC falling back below 25% would downgrade Factor 6 from 5 to 0.