TRIGGER WATCHLIST
UPGRADE TRIGGERS
  • Macro 0/3 supportive (supportive: none) — any one of DTWEXBGS, DFII10, NFCI flipping supportive would upgrade Factor 1 from 0 to 10.
  • BTC.D currently 56.12% (8-wk MA 59.28%, -7.40% over 4 weeks) — sustained decline toward pre-altseason sub-50% zone would reinforce Factor 2 at 20.
  • ETH/BTC currently 0.026392 (8-wk MA 0.027873, -6.62% over 4 weeks) — close above 8-wk MA OR flip to positive 4-wk change would upgrade Factor 3 from 0 to 7.
  • Stablecoin total $315.8B (-2.12% over 4 weeks) — flip to positive 4-wk change would upgrade Factor 4 from 0 to 7.
  • Funding (Bybit perps): ETH +0.0055%, SOL -0.0065%; 4/8 basket positive; alt mcap 24h not rising — ETH AND SOL positive, ≥ 4/5 secondaries positive, AND alt mcap confirmation rising 24h would upgrade Factor 5 from 7 to 15.
  • Top-100 breadth: 60/95 alts (63.2%) outperformed BTC over 90d (BTC -11.72%) — share outperforming BTC crossing 75% would upgrade Factor 6 from 10 to 15.
DOWNGRADE TRIGGERS
  • Macro 0/3 supportive (supportive: none) — further deterioration with all three sub-signals tightening harder would reinforce Factor 1 at 0.
  • BTC.D currently 56.12% (8-wk MA 59.28%, -7.40% over 4 weeks) — recovery above 8-wk MA OR flip to positive 4-wk change would downgrade Factor 2 from 20 to 10.
  • ETH/BTC currently 0.026392 (8-wk MA 0.027873, -6.62% over 4 weeks) — drop below 0.028 support would confirm deeper ETH weakness, reinforcing Factor 3 at 0.
  • Stablecoin total $315.8B (-2.12% over 4 weeks) — deeper contraction (4-wk change more negative) would reinforce Factor 4 at 0.
  • Funding (Bybit perps): ETH +0.0055%, SOL -0.0065%; 4/8 basket positive; alt mcap 24h not rising — ETH AND SOL both flipping negative with ≥ 2 secondaries following would downgrade Factor 5 from 7 to 0.
  • Top-100 breadth: 60/95 alts (63.2%) outperformed BTC over 90d (BTC -11.72%) — share outperforming BTC falling back below 50% would downgrade Factor 6 from 10 to 5.