STAGE 1

Macro Liquidity

MIXED · GATE PARTLY OPEN

Is money getting cheaper or dearer?

-0.125 4w
NFCI leverage · 4-week change
looseravgtighter

Financial conditions sit near their long-run average and the sub-indices disagree — the tide upstream of every risk asset is slack, neither rising nor falling.

Passes downstream: A liquidity impulse that historically reaches Bitcoin with a ~13-week lag.

Details — readings, definitions, sources
NFCILEVERAGE-0.125 4w
NFCINONFINLEVERAGE+0.014 4w
Further reading
Read the macro-crypto series →
STAGE 2

Risk Appetite

MIXED · GATE PARTLY OPEN

Is anyone willing to spend that money on risk?

z=+0.13
VIX z-score
calmavgstress

Volatility markets are neither calm nor nervous. Investors have conditional permission to hold risk — granted, revocable on short notice.

Passes downstream: Permission. Loose money without risk appetite stays parked in T-bills.

Details — readings, definitions, sources
NFCIRISK-0.027 4w
VIXz=+0.13
Read the macro-crypto series →
STAGE 3

Crypto-Native Liquidity

STABLE · GATE STEADY

Is money actually arriving at crypto’s door?

7d -0.36%
Stablecoin float · 7-day change
growingflatdraining

Stablecoin float — money standing inside crypto’s front door — is growing. Dry powder is building.

Passes downstream: The fuel. Nothing in crypto rallies for long without stablecoin float growth.

Details — readings, definitions, sources
NFCICREDIT-0.028 4w
stablecoin7d -0.36%
Further reading
Read the macro-crypto series →
STAGE 4

Bitcoin, the Entry Point

BULLISH · GATE OPEN

Where is the first-stop asset headed?

$64,371
BTC spot · 1d +0.4%
bearishneutralbullish

Bitcoin is the door new capital walks through first. Bias is BULLISH — trending with equities, inverse to the dollar, consistent with a macro-led bid.

Passes downstream: The tide. Altcoins almost never rally against a falling Bitcoin.

Details — readings, definitions, sources
NFCI-0.552
ANFCI-0.550
BTC-SPXcorr +0.45
BTC-DXYcorr -0.42
Conviction ●●●○ — capped one notch below maximum when Stages 1–2 read mixed, the same upstream-conditions-cap rule as the FX framework.
Further reading
Read the macro-crypto series →
STAGE 5

Rotation Down the Risk Curve

MIXED · GATE PARTLY OPEN

Is capital moving from Bitcoin into ETH and alts?

0/4
Rotation · cohorts (7d)
into BTCneutralinto alts

Early signs of capital stepping down the risk curve — alts outperforming on the week — but dominance and ETH/BTC have not confirmed. Forming, not confirmed.

Passes downstream: The last gate. When it opens with the others, that is altseason.

Details — readings, definitions, sources
0/4accumulating
1/4distributing
MAJORS NEUTRAL
BTC, ETH — rotation z=+0.20
AssetSpot1d7d
BTC$64,371+0.4%-0.7%
ETH$1,874+0.8%+0.7%
LARGE-CAPS NEUTRAL
SOL, BNB, XRP — rotation z=+0.16
AssetSpot1d7d
SOL$74.63+1.0%-1.1%
BNB$568.17+0.7%-0.4%
XRP$1.102+1.0%+0.9%
ADA$0.1655+1.0%-0.7%
DOGE$0.0728+4.7%+0.4%
AVAX$6.680+6.1%+1.7%
ALTS NEUTRAL
POL, LTC, SHIB — rotation z=-0.04
AssetSpot1d7d
POL$0.0767+0.1%-5.4%
LTC$46.26-0.2%-1.6%
SHIB$0.000005+19.5%+20.8%
ATOM$1.389-0.3%-7.2%
UNI$3.678-2.7%+3.0%
ICP$2.151+0.6%-1.0%
STABLES DISTRIBUTING
USDT, USDC, DAI — rotation z=-0.57
CoinSupply1d7d
USDT$184.2B-0.0%-0.0%
USDC$72.6B-0.6%-1.0%
DAI$4.6B-0.2%+0.4%
PYUSD$2.7B-1.0%-7.5%
FDUSD$347.1M-0.0%-0.0%
Further reading
Read the macro-crypto series →
OUTPUT

Why the gauge reads 32/100

CASCADE PARTIALLY FLOWING

Stage 3 and Stage 4 are open; Stage 1, Stage 2, and Stage 5 only partly open. The cascade is partially flowing, so the model reads 32/100 and the posture stays BTC-Heavy. The call changes when the triggers below trip.

▲ What upgrades this call

  • STAGE 1Macro 0/3 supportive (supportive: none) — any one of DTWEXBGS, DFII10, NFCI flipping supportive
  • STAGE 5BTC.D currently 56.63% (8-wk MA 56.12%, +0.80% over 4 weeks) — drop below 8-wk MA OR flip to negative 4-wk change
  • STAGE 5ETH/BTC currently 0.029504 (8-wk MA 0.027580, +11.02% over 4 weeks) — sustained move above 0.035 with accelerating 4-wk change
  • STAGE 3Stablecoin total $307.9B (-1.86% over 4 weeks) — flip to positive 4-wk change
  • STAGE 5Funding (Bybit perps): ETH +0.0045%, SOL +0.0100%; 7/8 basket positive; alt mcap 24h not rising — ETH AND SOL positive, ≥ 4/5 secondaries positive, AND alt mcap confirmation rising 24h
  • STAGE 5Top-100 breadth: 63/95 alts (66.3%) outperformed BTC over 90d (BTC -15.61%) — share outperforming BTC crossing 75%

▼ What downgrades this call

  • STAGE 1Macro 0/3 supportive (supportive: none) — further deterioration with all three sub-signals tightening harder
  • STAGE 5BTC.D currently 56.63% (8-wk MA 56.12%, +0.80% over 4 weeks) — break above 60% with weekly close would confirm a deeper dominance regime, reinforcing Factor 2 at 0.
  • STAGE 5ETH/BTC currently 0.029504 (8-wk MA 0.027580, +11.02% over 4 weeks) — close below 8-wk MA OR flip to negative 4-wk change
  • STAGE 3Stablecoin total $307.9B (-1.86% over 4 weeks) — deeper contraction (4-wk change more negative)
  • STAGE 5Funding (Bybit perps): ETH +0.0045%, SOL +0.0100%; 7/8 basket positive; alt mcap 24h not rising — ETH AND SOL both flipping negative with ≥ 2 secondaries following
  • STAGE 5Top-100 breadth: 63/95 alts (66.3%) outperformed BTC over 90d (BTC -15.61%) — share outperforming BTC falling back below 50%