This is a weighted composite of six market conditions, not a calibrated probability: no forecast event or horizon is defined, and no out-of-sample record is published. The six carry different maximums and score in tiers, so a higher reading means those conditions are scoring higher on this scale — not that more of them are present, and not that rotation is more likely by any date.
BTC BULLISH ●●●○ MACRO SUPPORTIVE Capital in BTC; rotation forming.
Liquidity flows downhill. It starts at the Fed, passes through financial conditions into risk appetite, arrives at crypto’s door as stablecoin float, enters through Bitcoin, and — only when every upstream gate is open — rotates down the risk curve into altcoins. The number above is the reading at the bottom of that pipe. The five stages below show where the flow stands today.
This number is the bottom of a five-stage cascade. Scroll to see how it’s built.
Conviction scale ●○○○ low → ●●●● high · Gate states ✓ open · ◐ partly open · ✕ closed
Is money getting cheaper or dearer?
Financial conditions are looser than average — the tide upstream of every risk asset is rising.
Passes downstream: A liquidity impulse that historically reaches Bitcoin with a ~13-week lag.
Is anyone willing to spend that money on risk?
Volatility markets are calm — investors have permission to hold risk.
Passes downstream: Permission. Loose money without risk appetite stays parked in T-bills.
Is money actually arriving at crypto’s door?
Stablecoin float — money standing inside crypto’s front door — is growing. Dry powder is building.
Passes downstream: The fuel. Nothing in crypto rallies for long without stablecoin float growth.
Where is the first-stop asset headed?
Bitcoin is the door new capital walks through first. Bias is BULLISH — trending with equities, inverse to the dollar, consistent with a macro-led bid.
Passes downstream: The tide. Altcoins almost never rally against a falling Bitcoin.
Is capital moving from Bitcoin into ETH and alts?
Early signs of capital stepping down the risk curve — alts outperforming on the week — but dominance and ETH/BTC have not confirmed. Forming, not confirmed.
Passes downstream: The last gate. When it opens with the others, that is altseason.
Stage 1, Stage 2, Stage 3, and Stage 4 are open; Stage 5 only partly open. The cascade is flowing, so the model reads 39/100, with capital in btc. The reading changes when the triggers below trip.
Educational and decision-support content only. Not financial, investment, or trading advice. Full disclaimer.
Eight essays, sequenced to follow the pipe top to bottom. Read them in this order and the monitor above becomes self-explanatory.
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4xForecaster
One idea runs this monitor.
Liquidity flows downhill — from the Fed to altcoins. Every panel below is one stage of that pipe.
Financial conditions tell you if money is cheap. Volatility tells you if anyone dares to use it.
Stablecoin float is money standing inside crypto’s front door. No float growth, no sustained rally.
New capital buys Bitcoin first. Bitcoin’s bias is the tide for everything else.
Altseason is capital walking down the risk curve — dominance falling, ETH/BTC rising.
The Altseason Conditions score is the reading at the bottom of the pipe. The triggers listed under it are exactly what would change the call. That’s the whole model.
