What This Is

This dashboard translates institutional macro research into actionable currency bias, updated twice daily. Every signal is grounded in peer-reviewed academic evidence and institutional research from the Federal Reserve Board, Bank for International Settlements, European Central Bank, and leading financial journals.

This is not chart analysis. This is the transmission chain — the structured sequence through which macro conditions flow into currency direction.

The Transmission Chain

The framework follows a top-down sequence that mirrors how institutional desks analyze currencies. Each layer feeds the next:

• ①
  Volatility Regime Bond and equity volatility determine which signals are trustworthy and which rules are active. When volatility is elevated, carry signals are suppressed and defensive positioning takes precedence.
• ②
  Rate Structure Treasury yields and yield-curve spreads set the structural floor for currency direction. The 2-year yield is the primary hinge point; the 10-year spread anchors longer-horizon bias.
• ③
  Cross-Asset Confirmation Equity sector rotation confirms or contradicts the macro read. The ratio of defensive to risk sectors signals whether institutional flows are consistent with the rate-driven thesis.
• ④
  Dollar Directional Bias The dollar's direction and driver — synthesized from the three layers above — expressed as a conviction-weighted directional call.
• ⑤
  Pair Bias Individual currency pair direction, conviction, and horizon — the terminal output. Every pair bias derives from the layers above it.

Built on Institutional Research

Every transmission channel in this framework is documented in peer-reviewed literature. These are not interpretive inferences — they are quantified relationships from published research:

• Federal Reserve Board FEDS Note (2024): A 1 percentage point widening of the 2-year rate differential generates approximately 3.5% dollar appreciation — the quantified basis for the rate-structure layer.
• Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis (2025): Global interest rate volatility explains 92% of the cross-sectional variation in carry trade returns — the basis for suppressing carry signals under elevated bond volatility.
• Engel and Wu, National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper 32808 (2024): Exchange rate models now work — because central banks became predictable. The framework's rate-differential weighting is grounded in this finding.
• Bank for International Settlements Working Paper 606: Bond volatility and equity volatility carry fundamentally different information for currencies. The volatility regime layer treats them as separate inputs, not interchangeable proxies.
• Bilello and Gayed (2014 Charles H. Dow Award): The XLU/SPY sector ratio signals risk-off regimes with statistically significant lead time — the academic basis for the cross-asset confirmation layer.

13 articles explore the complete evidence base →

Reading the Dashboard

When the regime is Clear, trade the rate differential. When the regime is Stressed, respect the volatility.

Publication Schedule

Bias calls are published at fixed windows:

Every call is logged in the public archive with direction, conviction, horizon, and invalidation condition. Outcomes are resolved automatically at horizon expiry. The track record compounds in real time.

G7 tier launches Q2 2026.

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