Research, framework, and analysis posts from the team behind the FX Monitor and CbRates monitor.
Europe buys most of its energy abroad and pays for most of its oil in dollars. What that does to the euro area's terms of trade, who ends up paying the bill, and why the exchange rate does not simply follow the oil price.
Read →Every directional call the FX Monitor publishes is written down before its outcome and graded later by a fixed rule. What the record is for, how it is kept, and why it carries no claim yet.
Read →Every row on E.A.G.L.E. Watch is a status pill and a line of dots. What each word means, what the page will never show, and how to read a change when one arrives.
Read →Backwardation and contango say something an oil price cannot: whether the market is short of barrels now. Why the monitor publishes a curve state beside a price.
Read →Gold crashed in 2008 and March 2020 — exactly when the hedge 'should' work. Dollar shortage and dollar debasement are different stresses, and gold reads each differently.
Read →A price is a fraction. Gold versus copper, equities, and the dollar turns one noisy level into regime instruments that cancel the denominator.
Read →Gold pays no coupon and answers to no issuer. That is precisely what makes it a readout on the system itself — and why the framework now tracks it.
Read →Asia trades first. By the time Europe opens and New York wakes, the overnight session has already voted. How to read the chronology of stress — and its limits.
Read →The transmission chain now begins where the trading day begins. Introducing the Asian Stress monitor: three tiers, explicit tripwires, and a deterministic state ladder.
Read →The FX Monitor presents a layered transmission chain from global risk to currency bias. Here is how each layer connects to the next, and how to read the signals in sequence.
Read →The CbRates monitor tracks rate decisions, bilateral differentials, real rates, and carry opportunities across 20 central banks in real time. Here is how to use it.
Read →Menkhoff et al. (2012) find that a global FX volatility factor captures more than 90% of the cross-sectional excess returns in five carry trade portfolios. What that one factor is, and what it is not.
Read →Models fit the dollar far better than they did in 1983, and Engel and Wu tie that to inflation targeting. But fitting is not forecasting, and the out-of-sample evidence is narrower.
Read →The FX Monitor is live. The CbRates monitor is live. Here is what we built, why we built it, and where it goes next.
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