The Two Faces of Gold: Reading the Hedge Under Dollar Stress
Gold crashed in 2008 and March 2020 — exactly when the hedge 'should' work. Dollar shortage and dollar debasement are different stresses, and gold reads each differently.
Read →The 4xForecaster Blog
Research, framework, and analysis posts from the team behind the FX dashboard and CbRates monitor.
Gold Versus Everything: Relative Strength as a Regime Instrument
A price is a fraction. Gold versus copper, equities, and the dollar turns one noisy level into regime instruments that cancel the denominator.
Read →Why Gold Joined the Framework
Gold pays no coupon and answers to no issuer. That is precisely what makes it a readout on the system itself — and why the framework now tracks it.
Read →First Light: Why the Asian Session Speaks Before Europe and New York
Asia trades first. By the time Europe opens and New York wakes, the overnight session has already voted. How to read the chronology of stress — and its limits.
Read →The Transmission Chain Goes East: Introducing the Asian Stress Monitor
The transmission chain now begins where the trading day begins. Introducing the Asian Stress monitor: three tiers, explicit tripwires, and a deterministic state ladder.
Read →Reading the Transmission Chain: A Dashboard Walkthrough
The FX dashboard presents a layered transmission chain from global risk to currency bias. Here is how each layer connects to the next, and how to read the signals in sequence.
Read →20 Central Banks, One Dashboard
The CbRates monitor tracks rate decisions, bilateral differentials, real rates, and carry opportunities across 20 central banks in real time. Here is how to use it.
Read →The 92% Carry Trade: What Global Volatility Does to Returns
Menkhoff et al. (2012) show that global FX volatility explains 92% of the variation in carry trade returns. Understanding this single factor changes how you size and time carry.
Read →Why Exchange Rate Models Finally Work
The Meese-Rogoff puzzle haunted FX economists for 40 years. Engel and Wu (2021) explain why models now outperform the random walk. The answer involves credible inflation targeting.
Read →The Lab Is Open
The FX dashboard is live. The CbRates monitor is live. Here is what we built, why we built it, and where it goes next.
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