Liquidity flows downhill. It starts at the Fed,
passes through financial conditions into risk appetite, arrives at
crypto’s door as stablecoin float, enters through Bitcoin, and — only
when every upstream gate is open — rotates down the risk curve into
altcoins. The Altseason Probability is the reading at the bottom of that
pipe. Each stage below conditions the next; the output is a framework
bias, not a trade signal.
The five-stage cascade
STAGE 1Macro Liquidity
Is money getting cheaper or dearer?
Data source. The two NFCI leverage sub-indices (financial and non-financial), from the Chicago Fed via FRED, updated weekly. A four-week slope classifies the regime.
Passes downstream. A loosening or tightening liquidity impulse that historically leads Bitcoin by roughly 13 weeks.
EXPANDINGSTABLEMIXEDDELEVERAGING
▼
STAGE 2Risk Appetite
Is anyone willing to spend that money on risk?
Data source. The NFCI risk sub-index alongside equity volatility (CBOE VIX, FRED series VIXCLS), expressed as a z-score versus its trailing one-year average.
Passes downstream. Permission to hold risk. Loose money without risk appetite stays parked in T-bills.
RISK-ONMIXEDRISK-OFF
▼
STAGE 3Crypto-Native Liquidity
Is money actually arriving at crypto’s door?
Data source. Deployable stablecoin float (USDT, USDC, and peers) from CoinGecko, seven-day change — the free-float component only, not headline market cap — cross-read with the NFCI credit sub-index.
Passes downstream. The fuel. Nothing in crypto rallies for long without stablecoin float growth.
EXPANDINGEASINGSTABLETIGHTENING
▼
STAGE 4Bitcoin, the Entry Point
Where is the first-stop asset headed?
Data source. Bitcoin spot with 90-day correlations to the S&P 500 and the US dollar index, the NFCI/ANFCI composite, and perpetual-swap funding (Bybit, used only as a clean retail-leverage proxy).
Passes downstream. The tide. Altcoins almost never rally against a falling Bitcoin.
BULLISHSIDEWAYSBEARISHPENDING
▼
STAGE 5Rotation Down the Risk Curve
Is capital moving from Bitcoin into ETH and alts?
Data source. Bitcoin dominance, the ETH/BTC ratio, and trailing seven-day rotation z-scores across four cohorts (majors, large-caps, alts, stables), from CoinGecko price aggregates.
Passes downstream. The last gate. When it opens with the others, that is altseason.
ACCUMULATINGROTATINGNEUTRALDISTRIBUTING
Conviction & the upstream cap
Conviction is expressed as an integer from 1 to 4, rendered as filled
dots (●○○○ low → ●●●● high). Each stage caps the conviction of the
stages below it: a mixed reading upstream holds downstream conviction
one notch below maximum, and Bitcoin cannot carry full conviction while
macro liquidity and risk appetite disagree. This is the same
upstream-conditions-cap rule the FX framework uses. The model produces a
directional reading, never a buy/sell call or position sizing.
New to the labels — the gate chips (Open / Partly Open / Closed),
the cohort states, the conviction dots? The
cross-surface glossary maps them to the
equivalent words on the FX, CbRates, and Asian Stress dashboards.
The Altseason Probability & trigger logic
The Altseason Probability Score (APS) is the synthesis at the bottom
of the cascade — a 0–100 reading of how likely a broad rotation into
altcoins is, given the state of all five gates.
The Trigger Watchlist under the score names the specific market
conditions that would move the call. Each trigger is labeled with the
stage it belongs to and split into upgrades (conditions that would
raise the reading) and downgrades (conditions that would lower it)
— for example, Bitcoin dominance closing below its eight-week average, or
stablecoin float flipping to contraction. Triggers describe observable
market thresholds; the model’s internal weights are not published.
The 12-week model freeze
Framework parameters — thresholds, lookbacks, and cohort definitions —
are held fixed for twelve weeks at a time. Only the live inputs move
between freezes; the machinery does not. Freezing the model prevents
curve-fitting to the last few weeks of price action and is the discipline
institutional allocators expect: a framework that quietly re-tunes itself
every week is untestable. Any parameter change happens at a scheduled
freeze boundary with a changelog entry, never mid-window.
Data sources & cadence
Source cadence. NFCI and its sub-indices update weekly
(Wednesday, covering the prior Friday) via FRED. VIX uses the prior daily
close (FRED VIXCLS). Bitcoin and cohort prices refresh hourly; stablecoin
float and macro series refresh daily — all from CoinGecko and FRED.
Derivation. A derive step recomputes the rotation signal after
every fetch, so the dashboard always reflects the latest inputs, gated by
the slowest series in each stage.
Publication cadence. The Altseason Probability and its triggers
are scored and published weekly. Intra-week dashboard state is
indicative; the weekly score is the reading of record.
