Reference
The State Label Glossary
Every 4xForecaster dashboard speaks in state labels — words like Clear, Accelerating, Favorable, or Alert — rather than raw numbers. Different surfaces sometimes use different words for the same underlying idea. This page lines those vocabularies up side by side so a read on one dashboard translates cleanly to another.
We publish the state, not the score. These labels are the deliberate public output of the framework; the thresholds, weights, and model internals behind them stay private. So this glossary defines what each word means and how the words relate — never the numbers that produce them.
The stress ladder
Volatility and market-condition labels all sit on one scale — from orderly and calm on the left to disorderly and stressed on the right. When a surface climbs this ladder, directional conviction is trimmed and reads defer to risk.
| Surface / measure | Calm end | Middle | Stressed end |
|---|---|---|---|
| FX · volatility regime | Clear | Caution | Stress |
| FX · bond volatility | Calm | Elevated | Stressed |
| FX · equity volatility (VIX) | Quiet / Calm | Caution | Stress |
| Asian Stress · per series | Calm | Watch | Alert |
| Asian Stress · overall regime | Calm | Elevated | Stressed |
The flow / gate ladder
The transmission cascade asks, at each stage, whether the signal passes downstream. A gate chip answers it: Open (flowing), Partly Open (mixed), Closed (blocked), or Pending (not enough data). Each surface's directional labels map onto the same three-step ladder.
| Surface / measure | Open / flowing | Partly / mixed | Closed / blocked |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gate chip | Open | Partly Open | Closed |
| FX · directional bias | Bullish | Sideways | Bearish |
| Crypto · capital cohort | Accumulating | Neutral / Rotating / Mixed | Distributing |
| CbRates · carry regime | Favorable | Caution | Hostile |
A fourth state, Pending, appears on every surface when an input is still loading or too stale to classify — it is not a direction, just "not yet."
Direction & cycle labels
Some labels describe which way something is moving rather than how open a gate is.
| Surface | Labels | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| CbRates · policy cycle | Hiking · Hold · Cutting | The direction of a central bank's recent rate decisions. |
| FX · rate momentum | Accelerating · Rising · Stable · Falling · Easing | How fast the US rate structure is shifting, and which way. |
| Crypto · Altseason regime | Bitcoin / Defensive → Transition → Early Alt Rotation → Broad Altseason | How far capital has rotated out of Bitcoin into the broader altcoin complex. |
Conviction dots
Wherever you see four dots — ●●●○ — they show how strongly a directional read is held, from weak to strong:
| ○○○○ | No conviction — the signal is absent or fully offset. |
|---|---|
| ●○○○ – ●●○○ | Weak to moderate — a lean, not a stance. |
| ●●●○ – ●●●● | Strong to full — the drivers line up and confirm each other. |
The dots are a relative strength indicator. They are never a raw score and don't map to a percentage.
By surface
Each dashboard's full label set, with a link to its methodology.
FX
Regime Clear / Caution / Stress. Bias Bullish / Bearish / Sideways.
Drivers Rates / Carry / Risk / Energy. Cross-asset Confirming / Mixed / Contradicting.
Crypto
Altseason regime Bitcoin / Defensive → Broad Altseason.
Cohorts Accumulating / Distributing / Neutral. Rotation Rotating / Mixed.
CbRates
Cycle Hiking / Cutting / Hold. Carry regime Favorable / Caution / Hostile.
Meeting Today / Soon / Normal.
Asian Stress
Per series Calm / Watch / Alert. Regime Calm / Elevated / Stressed.
Tiers Funding → Financial centers → Cyclicals.