Reference
The State Label Glossary
Every 4xForecaster monitor speaks in state labels — words like Clear, Accelerating, Favorable, or Alert — rather than raw numbers. Different surfaces sometimes use different words for the same underlying idea. This page lines those vocabularies up side by side so a read on one monitor translates cleanly to another.
We publish the state, not the score. These labels are the deliberate public output of the framework; the thresholds, weights, and model internals behind them stay private. So this glossary defines what each word means and how the words relate — never the numbers that produce them.
The stress ladder
Volatility and market-condition labels all sit on one scale — from orderly and calm on the left to disorderly and stressed on the right. When a surface climbs this ladder, directional conviction is trimmed and reads defer to risk.
Link 5 of 5, risk and liquidity Puts every stress word on one scale. The risk link shows up as volatility in equities and bonds and as stress in Asian funding markets; this table shows which words on which monitor describe the same condition.
| Surface / measure | Calm end | Middle | Stressed end |
|---|---|---|---|
| FX · volatility regime | Clear | Caution | Stress |
| FX · bond volatility | Calm | Elevated | Stressed |
| FX · equity volatility (VIX) | Quiet / Calm | Caution | Stress |
| Asian Stress · per series | Calm | Watch | Alert |
| Asian Stress · overall regime | Calm | Elevated | Stressed |
The flow / gate ladder
The transmission cascade asks, at each stage, whether the signal passes downstream. A gate chip answers it: Open (flowing), Partly Open (mixed), Closed (blocked), or Pending (not enough data). Each surface's directional labels map onto the same three-step ladder.
Links 1 to 5, the whole chain Gives each stage's answer to “does the signal pass downstream?” one three-step scale. The carry regime (risk, read from the FX volatility regime), the directional bias (the dollar and the pairs) and the crypto cohort (risk and liquidity) can then be read side by side.
| Surface / measure | Open / flowing | Partly / mixed | Closed / blocked |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gate chip | Open | Partly Open | Closed |
| Crypto · cascade gate | Open · Steady | Partly Open · Forming | Closed |
| FX · directional bias | Bullish | Sideways | Bearish |
| Crypto · capital cohort | Accumulating | Neutral / Rotating / Mixed | Distributing |
| CbRates · carry regime | Favorable | Caution | Hostile |
The Pending state and the crypto wordings
Pending
A fourth state, Pending, appears on every surface when an input is still loading or too stale to classify — it is not a direction, just “not yet.”
Crypto wordings
The crypto cascade adds two wordings of its own for the same two rungs: Steady is an open gate that is flat rather than rising — stablecoin float neither growing nor draining — and Forming is a partly-open gate where rotation has started but the confirming measures have not agreed yet.
Direction & cycle labels
Some labels describe which way something is moving rather than how open a gate is.
Links 1, 2 and 5 Reads direction rather than state: the policy cycle is link 1, rate momentum is how the US rate structure (link 2) is shifting, and capital posture is where the risk link (5) says liquidity has moved.
| Surface | Labels | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| CbRates · policy cycle | Hiking · Hold · Cutting | The direction of a central bank's recent rate decisions. |
| FX · rate momentum | Accelerating · Rising · Stable · Falling · Easing | How fast the US rate structure is shifting, and which way. |
| Crypto · capital posture | Capital in BTC → Capital in BTC and ETH → Capital reaching large-cap alts → Capital across the alt complex | How far capital has rotated out of Bitcoin into the broader altcoin complex. This is the phrase printed beside the Altseason score. |
Conviction dots
On the FX and Crypto monitors, four dots — ●●●○ — show how strongly a directional read is held, from weak to strong:
Links 4 and 5, the dollar, the pairs and crypto Attaches a strength to a directional read, so a bias on the FX or Crypto monitor is read together with how strongly it is held.
| Dots | Meaning |
|---|---|
| ○○○○ | No conviction — the signal is absent or fully offset. |
| ●○○○ – ●●○○ | Weak to moderate — a lean, not a stance. |
| ●●●○ – ●●●● | Strong to full — the drivers line up and confirm each other. |
What the dots are not, and the E.A.G.L.E. Watch exception
Relative, not a score
The dots are a relative strength indicator. They are never a raw score and don't map to a percentage.
E.A.G.L.E. Watch
E.A.G.L.E. Watch is the exception. Its dots are not a strength scale — there is one dot per higher timeframe (15m, 1h, 4h), coloured by what that timeframe is doing: green uptrend, red downtrend, orange pulling back, grey no clear trend. They answer “do the higher timeframes agree?”, not “how strong is this?”
By surface
Each monitor's full label set, with a link to its methodology.
Read-through Finds the monitor behind a word, so a label met on any link of the chain can be traced to its own page.
FX
Regime Clear / Caution / Stress. Bias Bullish / Bearish / Sideways.
Drivers Rates / Carry / Risk / Energy. Cross-asset Confirming / Mixed / Contradicting.
Crypto
Capital posture Capital in BTC → Capital across the alt complex.
Cohorts Accumulating / Distributing / Neutral. Rotation Rotating / Mixed.
Cascade gates Open / Steady / Partly Open / Forming / Closed.
CbRates
Cycle Hiking / Cutting / Hold. Carry regime Favorable / Caution / Hostile.
Meeting Today, a dated meeting, or Not listed — the bank
publishes a calendar, the date is not in our file yet.
Asian Stress
Per series Calm / Watch / Alert. Regime Calm / Elevated / Stressed.
Tiers Funding → Financial centers → Cyclicals.
Gold
Real-rate channel Headwind / Tailwind / Neutral: the 10-year real yield is higher
than it was a month earlier, so the cost of holding gold has risen (Headwind); lower (Tailwind);
or about where it was (Neutral). Official-sector flow Buying / Slowing: the latest
World Gold Council release shows net official purchases at or above the same quarter a year
earlier (Buying), or below it (Slowing). The words describe each channel, not where gold goes
next, and a Buying label beside a Headwind label means both readings are present, not which one
is larger. Pending is not measured yet; Unavailable is a reading that is
missing, malformed or too old, so no state is stated.
E.A.G.L.E. Watch
Status watching → approaching → near-nest → in-nest → Early signal → Bullish / Bearish,
plus Stand-down when a setup breaks the other way. Its own ladder, read as
how confirmed a structural read is — it does not map onto the ladders above.