Gold Monitor
This page reads two channels as acting on gold with opposite signs. The real yield that gold gives up is the standard account of the negative one, and it is priced every business day. Official-sector buying is this site’s reading of the positive one, an interpretation and not a finding, and it is reported after the fact. The page shows the state of each channel, the date each reading belongs to, and what gold did over the same dates. It reports what is measured. It is not a forecast.
Gold channel states
Which channels this page reads gold against, and how current each reading is. Each card carries its own date. A card that sits on a link of the chain says which; the others sit on none.
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Real-rate channel
Link 3 of 5, the split
Negative sign, all else equal · priced every business day
HEADWIND ●●●○ 3 of 4 windows agree
10-year real yield 2.78%. Over a month it rose 16.0bp; over a week it fell 9.0bp.
As of . Source: FRED (DFII10).
Signature on this reading: gold weakening while the real yield rises.
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Official-sector flow
Positive sign, on this reading · reported after the fact, then revised
BUYING ●●●○ editor’s reading
Central banks bought 289 tonnes in Q2 2026, up 62% on Q2 2025 and “a record high for a second quarter”. Over the first half, net demand was “the lowest for a first half since 2022”, and the Council revised its Q1 estimate from 244 tonnes to 57.
As of the release of . Source: World Gold Council, Gold Demand Trends: Q2 2026, Central Banks. Dots: three of four because the quarter is up on a year earlier and a record for a second quarter, while the half is the lowest since 2022 and the figures are revised after the fact.
Signature on this reading: gold holding while the real yield rises, then official purchases consistent with it.
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Gold and the dollar
Link 4 of 5, the dollar
Usually inverse; breaks when both are bid
PENDING
The dollar series this page can read is too short, and arrives too late, to tell a relationship from noise, so no state is printed.
Not measured yet.
Signature on this reading: the usual inverse relationship breaking, with gold and the dollar rising together.
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Gold miners
Planned reading, not yet defined
PENDING
No miners series is carried on this site yet.
Not measured yet.
Dots: the more filled, the more of the four windows agree (real-rate card) or the firmer the editor’s reading (official-flow card). They are not a probability. “How to read this page” has the detail.
Gold over the same dates
Links 3 and 4 of 5, the split and the dollar The real-rate channel’s signature, read on the same dates. A real yield that rises while gold weakens is the pattern this channel would leave, though a stronger dollar would leave the same one. Two published series, side by side. It does not say one caused the other.
| Window | Real yield | Gold | Over those dates |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 week to | -9.0bp | +0.27% | Real yield fell; gold rose |
| 1 month to | +16.0bp | -2.97% | Real yield rose; gold fell |
Real yield: FRED (DFII10). Gold: the spot series on the Asian Stress Monitor, taken on or before each date; its latest observation is .
How to read this page
What the states mean
Real-rate channel. HEADWIND: the 10-year real yield is higher than it was a month earlier, so the cost of holding gold has risen. TAILWIND: it is lower. NEUTRAL: it is about where it was. These describe the channel, not where gold goes next.
Official-sector flow. BUYING: the latest World Gold Council release shows net official purchases at or above the same quarter a year earlier. SLOWING: below it. The word names the buying and not an effect on the price of gold, and a BUYING label beside a HEADWIND label means both readings are present, not which one is larger. PENDING: not measured yet. UNAVAILABLE: the reading is missing, malformed or older than the card allows, so no state is stated.
What the sign lines mean
The sign is the direction a rise in the channel is read as pushing gold, all else equal. It is not the channel’s current state. The negative sign for the real yield is the standard account. The positive sign for official buying is this site’s reading of the Council’s central-bank survey, an interpretation and not a finding. The signature is the pattern the channel would leave in the data on that reading, and another cause can leave the same one.
What the dots count
Real-rate channel: of the four windows published on Real Rates & Inflation (one week, one month, three months, one year), how many agree with the one-month reading; a flat window agrees with NEUTRAL. The windows overlap, so agreement is not independent confirmation. Official-sector flow: the editor’s reading of how firmly the latest release supports the label; the reason is printed on the card. Neither is a probability that gold moves.
Where each reading comes from, and how old it can be
The real yield is FRED series DFII10, refreshed on business days. Gold is the spot series on the Asian Stress Monitor. The official-sector reading is set from a named World Gold Council release and is quoted as limited extracts, with citation and for review and commentary, as the disclaimer on the Council’s report page provides. A card whose reading is older than it allows shows UNAVAILABLE instead of its last state, and the table is shown only while the real-yield reading is current.
What is not measured yet
Gold and the dollar: the dollar series available here is too short and arrives too late for a correlation to mean anything. Gold miners: no series is carried. Neither shows a state.
The thinking behind it
Read-through The reasoning for each channel, and the pages it leans on.
- Gold and the Real Yield: Two Channels, Opposite Signs: the two channels, how fast each is seen, and what each would look like in the data.
- The Two Faces of Gold: the two kinds of dollar stress, a shortage and a debasement response, and why gold reads each differently.
- Gold Versus Everything: gold set against copper, equities and the dollar, so that a price level becomes a relative-strength reading.
- Why Gold Joined the Framework: why gold sits in the cyclical tier of the Asian Stress Monitor.
- Real Rates & Inflation: the 10-year yield split into its real and inflation legs.
- Asian Stress Monitor: where the gold series on this page is carried.
Educational and decision-support content only. Not financial, investment, or trading advice. Full disclaimer.