Real Rates & Inflation
A jump in measured inflation can mean two different things. It can be a price shock working through energy, tariffs or supply, which shows up in the near horizon and fades. Or it can be a shift in what the market expects over the long run, which does not. This page prints both horizons so the difference is visible, and states the change since a printed date.
What moved
Between 2026-10-08 and 2026-10-15, the US 10-year yield fell 12.0bp. The real yield fell 9.0bp and the inflation compensation priced beside it fell 3.0bp.
Link 3 of 5, the split The page's question in one line: did the 10-year move because what it pays after inflation changed, or because inflation compensation did? The sections below read that split in more detail.
Why the two parts add up
Arithmetic, not an estimate
The two parts add to the whole exactly. That is arithmetic, not an estimate: the inflation-compensation series is published as the difference between the other two.
At a glance
Inflation compensation, both horizons read — next five years 2.37%, the five years after that 2.33%. Each bar is the change since the date on its row, on one scale.
Link 3 of 5, the split The split through time. Comparing the next five years with the five years after that separates a price shock from a change in what the market expects once the shock has passed.
Each window lists the change in inflation compensation for the next five years and for the five years after that, measured from one earlier date common to both series. Bars share one scale. Each bar is announced as up, down or unchanged, followed by the size of the move, which is the same number the bar draws.
How to read the bars
Near bar and far bar
When only the near bar moves, what is being repriced is prices. When both move, the repricing has reached expectations that outlast the shock. The table below gives these same windows as figures.
Shock, or a change in expectations
Inflation compensation for the five years beginning five years from now is 2.33% as of . Longer-run expectations read as anchored.
Since it rose 6.0bp.
Link 3 of 5, the split The same split by horizon. The last column reads each pair of moves for what it means for inflation compensation across the two periods, and prints the change in the curve between them, which no other column shows.
Both columns read , and each row compares that reading with one earlier day common to both series. In the last column, steady means a move of 1bp or less, and the curve change is the far move minus the near move.
| Window | From | Next five years | The five years after that | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reading | — | 2.37% | 2.33% | — |
| 1 week | +3.0bp | +1.0bp | More inflation priced for the next five years, with years 6 to 10 little changed: a rise priced as confined to the near term. The curve between the two periods flattened by 2.0bp. | |
| 1 month | +2.0bp | +2.0bp | Inflation priced higher in both five-year periods: the repricing reaches years 6 to 10, not only the near term. | |
| 3 months | +10.0bp | +12.0bp | Inflation priced higher in both five-year periods: the repricing reaches years 6 to 10, not only the near term. The curve between the two periods steepened by 2.0bp. | |
| 1 year | +8.0bp | +6.0bp | Inflation priced higher in both five-year periods: the repricing reaches years 6 to 10, not only the near term. The curve between the two periods flattened by 2.0bp. |
How to read this table
Near first, then far
A jump in measured inflation shows up in the near column first, because that is where an energy, tariff or supply shock is priced. If the far column does not follow, the market is pricing the shock to pass. If it follows, the repricing has reached what the market expects inflation to be once the shock is gone. That is the distinction worth drawing before calling an inflation episode durable, and it is why the Federal Reserve cites the far measure when it discusses whether longer-run expectations have moved.
Why the far column is derived
The far column is not a separate reading. It is what the five- and ten-year measures imply for the five years between them: twice the ten-year move, less the five-year move. So:
- A move genuinely confined to the next five years leaves it unchanged — the ten-year averages both halves, so it moves about half as much and the two cancel.
- It moves with the near column when the repricing runs across both halves.
- It moves against the near column when the ten-year moves by less than half the near measure.
None of that is two sources disagreeing.
Which dates are compared
Each column is read on one date, and each row measures both columns from one earlier day the two series share — they are aligned to each other, not to the decomposition table above, whose date is set by two series this comparison does not use.
Anchored and drifting
Anchored describes a reading that has held its usual range; drifting describes one that has left it. The level and its change are printed above so the description can be checked against them.
The 10-year, split
Readings as of . Source: FRED (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis).
Link 3 of 5, the split Where the split starts. The nominal 10-year is the sum of what a Treasury pays after inflation and what the market prices for inflation, so every move in the yield is some mix of those two legs.
| Component | Level |
|---|---|
| Real yield | 2.78% |
| Inflation compensation | 2.32% |
| Nominal 10-year | 5.10% |
What the legs are, and where they come from
The two legs
The real yield is what a Treasury inflation-protected security pays after inflation. Inflation compensation is what the market prices for inflation over the same ten years — a bond price, not a survey and not a forecast.
Source and reading date
Every figure on this page comes from FRED (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis), so the three parts are measured the same way on the same day and the sum can be checked. Global Yields draws its US 10-year from a different provider with its own reading date, so the two pages can show slightly different numbers for the same maturity.
Across the curve
Links 2 and 3, the curve and the split The split at three maturities. Where the nominal and real yields differ, the gap is the inflation compensation priced at that maturity, so each row shows which part of the curve carries the inflation pricing.
| Maturity | Nominal | Real | Inflation compensation | Reading date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5-year | 4.91% | 2.58% | 2.33% | |
| 10-year | 5.10% | 2.78% | 2.32% | |
| 30-year | 5.43% | 3.18% | 2.25% (computed) |
How to read the dates, marks and dashes
Reading dates
Each maturity carries its own reading date because they are not guaranteed to be published together; on most days they agree.
Computed and missing
Marked computed where no daily inflation-compensation series exists at that maturity and it is the difference between the two columns beside it. A dash means the reading was not available. It is not a zero.
Inflation as measured
Link 3 of 5, the split Priced against measured. Inflation compensation above is a market price for inflation ahead; these are the measured readings it can be set beside, each under its own month.
| Measure | Year over year | Month it refers to |
|---|---|---|
| Core PCE watched as underlying inflation | 3.01% | |
| Core CPI | 2.57% | |
| Headline PCE the index the Fed’s 2% objective is defined on | 3.42% | |
| Headline CPI | 3.72% |
Which measure is which, and why the months differ
Months
Each figure carries its own month because they are not published together — the PCE measures arrive later than the CPI ones, so the newest available month differs between them.
The 2% objective
The Federal Reserve states its 2% objective in terms of the overall PCE price index rather than CPI, which is why a CPI reading and a PCE reading can tell different stories at the same moment.
Core measures
The core measures strip out food and energy; the Fed follows them as a guide to underlying inflation, but the objective itself is not stated on them.
The policy rate, after inflation
The effective federal funds rate on was 3.88%. Core PCE inflation for was 3.01% over the year before it. The difference is +0.87pp.
Links 1 and 3, policy and the split Where policy meets the split. It sets the policy rate that /CbRates tracks against measured inflation, so the long-yield split above can be read beside what the central bank rate pays after inflation.
Why there are two dates
Two dates, on purpose
The two dates are different on purpose and both are printed. The policy rate is known daily; the inflation measure it is set against refers to a month that closed some weeks earlier, so this difference pairs a current rate with the most recent completed inflation reading rather than with a simultaneous one.
Underlying data last refreshed .
Educational and decision-support content only. Not financial, investment, or trading advice. Full disclaimer.