Where policy rates create carry — and whether conditions favour it
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Carry regime
Reading policy rates across 20 central banks…
Coverage — banks ·
US rate — ·
data as of —
Link 1 of 5, policy This page is where the site’s transmission chain starts: what central banks are doing to the price of money. The four stages below are this page’s own rate chain, each reading one step from policy to carry.
Which way is each central bank moving — is the rate structure live or asleep?
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hiking · cutting · hold
Policy direction is the raw material. When some banks hike while others hold or cut, rate gaps open up — the differentials the next stage measures.
Market vs policy
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Where each bank’s 2-year government yield sits against the rate it has actually set.
Link 1 of 5, policy Sets the rate a bank has chosen beside the current 2-year government yield. The gap is an observed spread; it also contains term, credit and liquidity premia, so it is not a direct measure of expected policy.
Bank
2-year yield
Policy rate
Yield versus policy rate
What this covers
Coverage
Passes downstream → the differentials each cycle creates
Full policy-rate table (20 banks)
Link 1 of 5, policy Where the chain starts: each bank’s rate, its gap to the US rate, what the rate pays after inflation, the direction of its recent decisions and when it next meets.
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02
Rate differentials
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How wide is the gap between each currency's rate and the US rate?
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widest gap vs USD
The gap is what pays: a higher foreign rate rewards holding that currency (positive carry); a lower one means the dollar dominates. Wide gaps are the fuel — but the volatility regime decides whether they hold.
Passes downstream → whether conditions favour holding it
Differential vs USD — every currency
Link 1 of 5, policy Turns each policy rate into a gap against the US rate. Bars to the right are currencies whose policy rate is above the US rate; bars to the left are below it. It holds no yield-curve data; the curve is on /yields.
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Carry regime
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Does the current volatility environment reward carry, or punish it?
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from the FX volatility regime
Wide differentials only pay if markets stay orderly. In a Favorable regime carry works; in a Hostile one (elevated volatility) carry trades unwind regardless of how wide the gap is. This gate comes straight from the FX Monitor's volatility read.
Passes downstream → the carry read, timed against events
Carry screener — top candidates & USD-dominant pairs
Links 1, 4 and 5 Reads the policy gaps through the volatility regime (risk, link 5) and names the pairs the gap applies to, the same pairs the dollar-and-pairs link (4) scores on /FX.
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04
Meeting risk
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What scheduled decision could reprice these rates in the near term?
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next scheduled decision
A rate gap is only stable until the next meeting. A decision inside a week is live event risk — it can widen or collapse the differential overnight, so it caps conviction on any carry read.
What decides next
Link 1 of 5, policy The nearest confirmed scheduled decision date among the banks in the table. Banks without a confirmed date are not counted.
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What the count excludes
Banks without a date
Passes downstream → the read below
Next 30 days — meeting calendar
Link 1 of 5, policy Lists the scheduled decisions inside 30 days, the dates on which a policy rate and the gaps built on it can change.
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✓
The read
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Link 1 of 5, policy Collects the four stages into one reading. What it reports on policy and carry is what the curve (link 2, /yields) and the dollar (link 4, /FX) are read against.
Synthesizing the rate chain…
Learn the mechanism
How rate differentials transmit into FX direction — the mechanism behind this monitor. New here? See the state-label glossary, or this monitor’s own methodology.
Note: Rates marked “manifest” are sourced from the data manifest and updated periodically.
Live FRED data is used where available. All rates are approximate — verify before acting.
Not financial advice. Full disclaimer.
