4xF Post-Market — 20260513

Headline: Dollar firms modestly on a quiet tape while FX structure tilts toward a few select continuations and CARRY unwinds.

Regime Narrative

VIX closed at 17.99, down 0.39 on the session, with a 252-day z-score of -0.078 — bond-vol remains in a Calm regime and equity implied vol is essentially at its long-run median, contributing no directional signal of its own. SPX edged lower by -0.160%, an inconsequential drift rather than a regime shift, while DXY added +0.145% to settle at 98.462 — a firm but not forceful reassertion of dollar bid. BTC's 30-day correlation to SPX has compressed to 0.1792 against a still-elevated 90-day reading of 0.5288, suggesting the crypto complex has partially decoupled from equity RISK flows in the near term while retaining a structural relationship over the medium window. The 30-day DXY correlation for BTC sits at -0.4314, reinforcing that dollar strength is the more immediate headwind for crypto positioning; the CARRY and RATES environments are not generating dislocation, they are simply drifting in a low-conviction equilibrium.

SURF State Summary

Armed at stage 3 on the buy side: USDCAD/1d (HH 1.3951, LL 1.35414) and USDMXN/1d (HH 17.99735, LL 17.1138), though both carry negative or marginal Sharpe in back-history and the framework marks them `skip` — structure is present but quality is insufficient to elevate conviction ●○○○. DXY00/1d remains stage-3 buy with reference levels HH 100.443 / LL 98.525, holding a positive but modest Sharpe at 0.2621 — worth monitoring ●●○○. On the sell side, EURUSD/1d is stage-3 armed (HH 1.18492, LL 1.1409) but also carries a `skip` verdict on negative Sharpe; USDJPY/5m is stage-3 sell but likewise `skip` on a deeply negative Sharpe at -1.199. Converting at stage 2: USDJPY/1h (BUY, HH 157.65, Sharpe 1.3914) is the highest-quality live conversion in the entire table ●●●○; EURUSD/1h is stage-2 sell (LL 1.1694, Sharpe near zero) — framework acknowledges the structure but quality is marginal ●○○○. USDSEK/1h armed at stage-3 buy (HH 9.31707, LL 9.12157) with a positive but subdued Sharpe of 0.1311 ●●○○. The remaining cells — GBPUSD, USDCHF, AUDUSD, NZDUSD, USDZAR across all timeframes — are idle, stages 0 or 1, no actionable structure.

Watchlist

• USDJPY/1h BUY ●●●○ — The only stage-2 conversion in the imminent list carrying a Sharpe above 1.39 (1.3914). Price at 157.83 with HH reference at 157.65 already cleared; watch for intraday continuation through Asian session. Invalidation if RSI closes back below 50 on the hourly and price rejects below 157.65.

• DXY00/1d BUY ●●○○ — Stage-3 buy structure intact with upper reference at 100.443 and floor at 98.525. Today's 98.462 close places the index marginally below the LL reference — a hold above 98.525 on tomorrow's daily close would reassert the structure; failure to do so removes the armed bias. RSI at 46.73 leaves room before overbought interference.

• USDSEK/1h BUY ●●○○ — Stage-3 armed, HH 9.31707 / LL 9.12157, price 9.32105 holding above the HH. Modest Sharpe (0.1311) across 49 trades tempers conviction; this is a pattern-watch rather than a high-confidence trigger. Watch for RSI sustaining above 55 on the hourly to confirm momentum.

• USDMXN/5m SELL ●●○○ — Stage-3 sell on the 5-minute, HH 17.1891 / LL 17.1512, price 17.1552 sitting near the LL. Sharpe at 0.2280 across 32 trades is positive but modest. Any impulsive push back toward 17.1891 with a reverting RSI print is the trigger zone; invalidation on a clean close above 17.1891.

What I'm Not Doing

EURUSD/1d sell (stage 3, `skip`) and USDJPY/5m sell (stage 3, `skip`, Sharpe -1.199) illustrate precisely why armed structure alone is not sufficient — the framework demands that historical edge be present before a cell graduates from observation to consideration, and both of these fail that bar cleanly.